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UoM Consumer Sentiment (Prelim)

Mid-month, Friday · 10:00 ET

The University of Michigan's household survey. In the current regime its inflation-expectations component matters more than headline sentiment — the Fed cites it directly.

A jump in 1-year or 5-10-year inflation expectations can move rates markets even when sentiment itself is in line.

What it measures

University of Michigan's household survey: sentiment, current conditions, expectations — and the 1-year and 5-10-year inflation-expectation questions.

Why the economy cares

The inflation-expectation series is the payload: the Fed treats de-anchoring household expectations as its nightmare scenario and cites this exact survey.

How it maps onto the chart

Sentiment itself rarely moves anything; a jump in inflation expectations can move rates and USD at 10:00 ET even when the headline is in line.

Price behavior around the release

Before

None worth noting.

During

Quiet unless the expectations series surprises; then a single sharp repricing.

After

Expectation-driven moves persist into the following sessions because they alter the Fed-speak that follows.

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