News
EURHigh · 2.66x

ECB Rate Decision (Main Refinancing Rate)

Eight scheduled meetings per year (Thursday) · 14:15 CET

The European Central Bank's policy decision for the euro area. As with the Fed, the decision is usually priced; the statement's guidance tweaks carry the surprise.

The 45 minutes between the decision and the press conference are a structural trap for EUR positions — the presser regularly reverses the initial move.

What it measures

The Governing Council's decision on the euro area's three policy rates, published with a statement on the growth and inflation outlook.

Why the economy cares

Monetary policy for the world's second currency. As with the Fed, the decision itself is usually priced — the guidance about the pace and endpoint of future moves carries the surprise.

How it maps onto the chart

Hawkish → EUR up (EURUSD bid, DAX often pressured); dovish → EUR down. Our measurement: the post-decision hour runs ~2.7x an ordinary 14:15 CET hour on EURUSD — second only to the FOMC among measured events.

Price behavior around the release

Before

European morning compresses; EURUSD tends to hold a tight range from the London open into the decision, stacking stops on both sides.

During

Sharp initial repricing at 14:15 CET — but with a structural catch: the press conference 30 minutes later regularly reverses it.

After

Treat decision + presser as one 90-minute event. The move that survives the President's Q&A is the one worth joining; the 14:15 impulse alone has poor follow-through stats.

Who lets you trade it

News-trading policy of every firm in our verified catalog, read off the firm's own pages. Details and per-program exceptions live in the firm's rules.

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